The Upshot Gave Clinton About an 85% Chance
■ The claim
The New York Times' Upshot forecast put Hillary Clinton's chance of winning the presidency at roughly 85 percent heading into Election Day, listed at 84 percent in its final reading, giving Trump about 16 percent.
■ What actually happened
Trump won the Electoral College, carrying Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, where state polls had shown Clinton ahead. The industry's own review found that state polls in the upper Midwest understated Trump's support. The Upshot later published its own review of why key state polls were wrong.
■ The proof
The 2016 Electoral College result and the AAPOR 2016 polling review documenting the state-poll miss.
■ Original reporting
- NYT Upshot: 2016 presidential forecast pagehttp://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
- Political Wire: final forecasts roundup listing NYT/Upshot at 84%https://politicalwire.com/2016/11/08/the-final-forecasts-2/
■ Corrections, findings & records
- Mic: 2016 election forecasters, how did they do? (Upshot gave Trump 16%)https://mic.com/articles/158901/2016-election-forecasters-how-did-they-do
- AAPOR: An Evaluation of 2016 Election Polls in the U.S.https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/AAPOR-2016-Election-Polling-Report.pdf
■ Wayback Machine copies
Stories sometimes get edited after publication. These links open the Internet Archive's earliest snapshot of each original.
- Archive copy: NYT Upshot: 2016 presidential forecast pagehttps://web.archive.org/web/2/http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
- Archive copy: Political Wire: final forecasts roundup listing NYT/Upshot at 84%https://web.archive.org/web/2/https://politicalwire.com/2016/11/08/the-final-forecasts-2/
■ Grade
BAD CALL: A confident prediction or dismissal that turned out wrong. Not a lie, but on the record. How we grade →