Record of the Press · 2012–Present
Released to the public · 31 OCT 2026File TBL-0015
BAD CALL

Princeton Forecaster Called Clinton a 99% Lock, Then Ate a Bug on CNN

08 NOV 2016 · Princeton Election Consortium, CNN
Screenshot of the page as published at election.princeton.edu
EXHIBIT A — Page capture from election.princeton.edu. Click to open the source.

■ The claim

Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium gave Clinton a greater than 99 percent chance in one version of its model (93 percent in its final revised projection), calling the race for her in October. On CNN's Smerconish shortly before the election, Wang said he would eat a bug if Trump won more than 240 electoral votes.

■ What actually happened

Trump won well over 240 electoral votes. On November 12, 2016, Wang returned to CNN and ate a cricket on air. He later said he had underestimated the size of correlated polling error and that his false certainty was the big lesson.

■ The proof

The Electoral College result, Wang eating the bug on CNN, and his own published admission that he made a mistake.

■ Original reporting

■ Corrections, findings & records

■ Wayback Machine copies

Stories sometimes get edited after publication. These links open the Internet Archive's earliest snapshot of each original.

Who it helped: DemocratsProjected a near-certain Clinton win.

■ Grade

BAD CALL: A confident prediction or dismissal that turned out wrong. Not a lie, but on the record. How we grade →