HuffPost's Model Gave Clinton a 98% Chance and Mocked Nate Silver for Doubting It
■ The claim
HuffPost Pollster's presidential model put Hillary Clinton's chance of winning at about 98 percent on Election Day. Days earlier, HuffPost Washington bureau chief Ryan Grim wrote that Nate Silver's far less confident FiveThirtyEight forecast was tilting the polls toward Trump and amounted to guesswork dressed up as math.
■ What actually happened
Donald Trump won the Electoral College. The morning after, HuffPost's polling editors wrote that the polls had missed and that their presidential and Senate forecasts had failed because they relied on those polls. On November 9, Grim publicly apologized to Silver and said Silver was right that there was much more uncertainty than HuffPost had accounted for.
■ The proof
The 2016 election result, HuffPost's own post-election piece saying its forecasts failed, and Ryan Grim's public apology to Nate Silver.
■ Original reporting
- HuffPost: HuffPollster Election Day newsletter citing the 98.2% Clinton forecast (Nov 8, 2016)https://www.huffpost.com/entry/election-day-things-look-good-for-democrats_n_12861204
- HuffPost forecast page (as linked by Political Wire)http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/forecast/president
- HuffPost: Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls -- All Of Them -- In Trump's Direction (Ryan Grim)https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_n_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f
- Political Wire: summary of Grim's article (Nov 5, 2016)https://politicalwire.com/2016/11/05/nate-silver-unskewing-polls-trumps-direction/
- Political Wire: final 2016 forecasts roundup listing HuffPost at 98%https://politicalwire.com/2016/11/08/the-final-forecasts-2/
■ Corrections, findings & records
- HuffPost: Pollsters And Forecasters Had A Rough Nighthttps://www.huffpost.com/entry/pollsters-and-forecasters-had-a-rough-night_n_5822c343e4b0e80b02cdee13
- Mediaite: HuffPo staffer apologizes to Nate Silverhttps://www.mediaite.com/online/huffpo-staffer-apologizes-to-nate-silver-for-accusing-him-of-overblowing-trumps-chances
■ Wayback Machine copies
Stories sometimes get edited after publication. These links open the Internet Archive's earliest snapshot of each original.
- Archive copy: HuffPost: HuffPollster Election Day newsletter citing the 98.2% Clinton forecast (Nov 8, 2016)https://web.archive.org/web/2/https://www.huffpost.com/entry/election-day-things-look-good-for-democrats_n_12861204
- Archive copy: HuffPost forecast page (as linked by Political Wire)https://web.archive.org/web/2/http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/forecast/president
- Archive copy: HuffPost: Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls -- All Of Them -- In Trump's Direction (Ryan Grim)https://web.archive.org/web/2/https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_n_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f
- Archive copy: Political Wire: summary of Grim's article (Nov 5, 2016)https://web.archive.org/web/2/https://politicalwire.com/2016/11/05/nate-silver-unskewing-polls-trumps-direction/
- Archive copy: Political Wire: final 2016 forecasts roundup listing HuffPost at 98%https://web.archive.org/web/2/https://politicalwire.com/2016/11/08/the-final-forecasts-2/
■ Grade
BAD CALL: A confident prediction or dismissal that turned out wrong. Not a lie, but on the record. How we grade →