Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll Had Harris Up 3; Trump Won by 13

02 NOV 2024 · The Des Moines Register, Selzer & Co.

Screenshot of the page as published at semafor.com — EXHIBIT A — Page capture from semafor.com. Click to open the source.

■ The claim

Three days before the election, Ann Selzer's final Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register showed Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in Iowa, which caused a national stir.

■ What actually happened

Trump won Iowa by about 13 points, roughly 56 percent to 43 percent, a miss of about 16 points. On November 17, 2024, Selzer announced in a Register op-ed that she was ending her election polling work. She later called the poll a spectacular miss but said the move had been planned and was not caused by the result.

■ The proof

Iowa's 2024 certified result and Selzer's own statements calling the poll a miss.

■ Original reporting

Semafor: Iowa's top pollster shocks race with finding that Harris leads Trump (Nov 2, 2024)https://semafor.com/article/11/02/2024/iowas-top-pollster-shocks-race-with-finding-that-harris-leads-trump
HuffPost UK: Shock Iowa poll shows Harris with lead over Trumphttps://huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/shock-iowa-poll-shows-harris-with-lead-over-trump_uk_67272afae4b0c08c52a5769d

■ Corrections, findings & records

CNN (via ABC17): Top pollster Ann Selzer to retire after bombshell Iowa poll ended in huge misshttps://abc17news.com/money/cnn-business-consumer/2024/11/17/top-pollster-ann-selzer-to-retire-after-bombshell-iowa-poll-ended-in-huge-miss/
Iowa Public Radio: Ann Selzer clarifies her exit from political pollinghttps://www.iowapublicradio.org/ipr-news/2024-11-26/ann-selzer-clarifies-her-exit-from-political-polling
Wikipedia: 2024 United States presidential election in Iowahttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election_in_Iowa

■ Wayback Machine copies

Stories sometimes get edited after publication. These links open the Internet Archive's earliest snapshot of each original.

Archive copy: Semafor: Iowa's top pollster shocks race with finding that Harris leads Trump (Nov 2, 2024)https://web.archive.org/web/2/https://semafor.com/article/11/02/2024/iowas-top-pollster-shocks-race-with-finding-that-harris-leads-trump
Archive copy: HuffPost UK: Shock Iowa poll shows Harris with lead over Trumphttps://web.archive.org/web/2/https://huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/shock-iowa-poll-shows-harris-with-lead-over-trump_uk_67272afae4b0c08c52a5769d

Who it helped: DemocratsSuggested late Harris momentum days before the election.

■ Grade

BAD CALL: A confident prediction or dismissal that turned out wrong. Not a lie, but on the record. How we grade →