2024 'Coin Flip' Forecasts vs. a Trump Sweep of All Seven Swing States
■ The claim
Final 2024 forecasts called the presidential race essentially a 50-50 toss-up. FiveThirtyEight gave Harris about a 50 percent chance and Trump about 49 percent, and Nate Silver's final model also landed at roughly 50-50 with a slight Harris edge.
■ What actually happened
Trump won all seven battleground states for 312 electoral votes and became the first Republican in two decades to win the national popular vote. Errors again ran in Democrats' favor, and the result was a clear win rather than a near tie. Forecasters note a sweep was within their range of outcomes, but the toss-up framing understated Trump's strength.
■ The proof
Certified 2024 results: a 312-electoral-vote Trump win with a swing-state sweep and a popular-vote win.
■ Original reporting
- ABC News/538: 538's final forecasts for the 2024 electionhttps://beta.goodmorningamerica.com/news/story/538s-final-forecasts-for-the-2024-election-115511051
- Salon: Nate Silver's final forecast is as close as you can get to 50/50 (Nov 5, 2024)https://salon.com/2024/11/05/nate-silvers-final-forecast-as-close-as-you-can-possibly-get-to-5050
■ Corrections, findings & records
- Axios: Trump officially sweeps all 7 swing stateshttps://www.axios.com/2024/11/10/trump-sweeps-seven-swing-states
- Al Jazeera: Trump wins Arizona, completing sweep of all seven swing stateshttps://www.aljazeera.com/program/newsfeed/2024/11/10/trump-wins-arizona-completing-clean-sweep-of-all-seven-swing-states
■ Wayback Machine copies
Stories sometimes get edited after publication. These links open the Internet Archive's earliest snapshot of each original.
- Archive copy: ABC News/538: 538's final forecasts for the 2024 electionhttps://web.archive.org/web/2/https://beta.goodmorningamerica.com/news/story/538s-final-forecasts-for-the-2024-election-115511051
- Archive copy: Salon: Nate Silver's final forecast is as close as you can get to 50/50 (Nov 5, 2024)https://web.archive.org/web/2/https://salon.com/2024/11/05/nate-silvers-final-forecast-as-close-as-you-can-possibly-get-to-5050
■ Grade
BAD CALL: A confident prediction or dismissal that turned out wrong. Not a lie, but on the record. How we grade →