Released to the public · 31 OCT 2026File TBL-0044
BAD CALL
ABC/Washington Post Had Biden Up 17 in Wisconsin; He Won by 0.6
■ The claim
An ABC News/Washington Post poll released a week before Election Day showed Biden leading Trump 57 percent to 40 percent among likely Wisconsin voters, a 17-point lead.
■ What actually happened
Biden carried Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes, roughly 0.6 percentage points, a result confirmed by a recount. The poll missed the margin by more than 16 points and was widely cited afterward as one of the cycle's biggest misses.
■ The proof
Wisconsin's certified and recounted 2020 result versus the published poll numbers.
■ Original reporting
- WBAY: Biden leads Trump by 17 points in Wisconsin in ABC News/Washington Post poll (Oct 28, 2020)https://www.wbay.com/2020/10/28/biden-leads-trump-by-17-points-in-wisconsin-in-abc-newswashington-post-poll
- The Week: Biden beating Trump by 17 points in new Wisconsin pollhttps://theweek.com/speedreads/946363/biden-beating-trump-by-unbelievable-17-points-new-wisconsin-poll
■ Corrections, findings & records
- Mediaite: Poll showed Biden up 17 in a state he won by 0.6%https://www.mediaite.com/election-2020/wisconsin-dem-chair-tells-of-dismissing-absurd-polls-including-one-showing-biden-up-17-in-a-state-he-won-by-0-6
- PolitiFact: Recount finds Trump did not win Wisconsinhttps://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/dec/09/donald-trump/recount-finds-trump-did-not-win-wisconsin-despite-
- Ballotpedia: Presidential election in Wisconsin, 2020https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election_in_Wisconsin,_2020
■ Wayback Machine copies
Stories sometimes get edited after publication. These links open the Internet Archive's earliest snapshot of each original.
- Archive copy: WBAY: Biden leads Trump by 17 points in Wisconsin in ABC News/Washington Post poll (Oct 28, 2020)https://web.archive.org/web/2/https://www.wbay.com/2020/10/28/biden-leads-trump-by-17-points-in-wisconsin-in-abc-newswashington-post-poll
- Archive copy: The Week: Biden beating Trump by 17 points in new Wisconsin pollhttps://web.archive.org/web/2/https://theweek.com/speedreads/946363/biden-beating-trump-by-unbelievable-17-points-new-wisconsin-poll
Who it helped: DemocratsOverstated Biden's lead in a swing state.
■ Grade
BAD CALL: A confident prediction or dismissal that turned out wrong. Not a lie, but on the record. How we grade →