WaPo: Trump's Chances 'Approaching Zero'
■ The claim
Two weeks before the 2016 election, a Washington Post analysis headline declared that Donald Trump's chances of winning were approaching zero.
■ What actually happened
Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake's October 24, 2016 analysis for The Fix read the state polling as leaving Trump almost no path to 270 electoral votes. Many forecasters and analysts shared that view at the time. Trump won the election on November 8, 2016, and Congress certified 304 electoral votes for him in January 2017.
■ The proof
The certified 2016 Electoral College result was 304 electoral votes for Trump.
■ Original reporting
- Washington Post (The Fix): Trump's chances of winning are approaching zerohttps://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/24/donald-trumps-chances-of-winning-are-approaching-zero/
- PJ Media: Washington Post says Trump's chances 'approaching zero'https://pjmedia.com/trending/2016/10/25/washington-post-says-trumps-chances-approaching-zero/
■ Corrections, findings & records
- 270toWin: Trump officially wins as Congress counts electoral voteshttps://www.270towin.com/news/2017/01/06/donald-trump-officially-wins-presidency-as-electoral-votes-counted-by-congress_440.html
■ Wayback Machine copies
Stories sometimes get edited after publication. These links open the Internet Archive's earliest snapshot of each original.
- Archive copy: Washington Post (The Fix): Trump's chances of winning are approaching zerohttps://web.archive.org/web/2/https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/24/donald-trumps-chances-of-winning-are-approaching-zero/
- Archive copy: PJ Media: Washington Post says Trump's chances 'approaching zero'https://web.archive.org/web/2/https://pjmedia.com/trending/2016/10/25/washington-post-says-trumps-chances-approaching-zero/
■ Grade
BAD CALL: A confident prediction or dismissal that turned out wrong. Not a lie, but on the record. How we grade →